Grey Matters

Written 2005-07-20

Those of you who’ve been reading my notes for a long time know that I’ve been a Global Warming Skeptic from the get-go. I can still remember in the mid-to-late ’70’s when scientists were saying we were about to enter a new Ice Age.

A “computer model” is a tool used to make predictions  (the model’s output) about the future based on a set of conditions (the inputs) imposed upon it. The computer models used by warming theorists are badly flawed. As with any computer model, one should be able to input historical conditions leading up to the present and the model should predict present conditions. The warming theorist’s model has historically been way off, in some cases predicting the opposite of what has actually occurred in terms of global climate.

There’s a paper from the Competitive Enterprise Institute titled “What Every European Should Know About Global Warming” and it’s a good read for us Americans too. There’s a link on the right to ‘View PDF’

One point which I hope is not lost on anyone is that, as is often the case where government tries to protect us from ourselves, the proposed cure is worse than the disease. Some examples: More people are harmed by the War On Drugs than are ever harmed by recreational drug use; the effort to reduce crime through restrictive gun control has only served to increase crime by leaving people unarmed and defenseless against the criminal element.

In the case of global warming, the same is true. The proposed fix will harm many more people, including causing more deaths, than the effects of warming itself. Mankind is responsible for only a small fraction of the warming we’re experiencing. Most of the current global climate change is cyclic in nature and naturally occurring. At this time, we don’t even know that the effects of warming are more harmful than beneficial. Until the computer model can be fixed, the best thing to do is simply observe and collect data. It’s waaayy too soon to begin correcting anything except the computer model.

Written 2005-05-27

Homeland Security cracks down on movies pirates. I guess that U.S.A. P.A.T.R.I.O.T. Act is really paying off…

“On Wednesday (May 25), departments of Justice and Homeland Security announced they were shutting down the BitTorrent network know as Elite Torrents after the site became one of the first peer-to-peer networks to deliver “Revenge of the Sith” to Internet pirates before its official May 19 release.”

<http://www.zap2it.com/movies/news/story/0,1259,—25846,00.html>
Did ever there exist a government agency that didn’t try to expand its turf?

[See the 4th Law of Government, Corollary 2.]

There’s a theory going around that the attacks of 9-11 were encouraged, at least in part, by President Clinton’s actions in Somalia. In a nutshell, the theory is that, when American blood was spilled, Clinton decided to get out of Dodge rather than stay and finish what the U.S. had started. Osama bin Laden saw this as a sign of fear and saw the U.S. as a scardy-cat paper tiger. This emboldened him to plan the 9-11 (and other) attacks. Presumably, had Clinton kicked Somali butts, bin Laden would have more respect for Americans, or been more fearful.

Just to refresh memories, here’s a quick history of America’s Somali Adventure.

Somalia was fighting a civil war. Famine ensued. In March of 1992, a ceasefire allowed the U.N. to send in humanitarian assistance and unarmed military observers. The U.N. efforts don’t actually begin until mid-August. Unfortunately, warlords hijack most of the relief supplies as soon as they hit the ground. U.N. aid worked are attacked. Somalis continue to starve. The U.N. asks member nations to assist with the humanitarian efforts.

In December of 1992, George Bush (the first one) orders 25,000 U.S. troops into Somalia. The first marines hit the beach on December 9, 1992. “Operation Restore Hope” is underway. 

On May 4, 1993, U.S. forces, now commander-in-chiefed by Bill Clinton, turn over command to an upgraded U.N. force whose mission is much expanded beyond humanitarian relief. The new U.N. force is now “nation building,” restoring infrastructure and keeping the peace.

Clinton draws down the U.S. forces to just 1,200 combat troops plus another 3,000 support troops .

On June 5, 24 Pakistani soldiers are ambushed and massacred during inspection of a Somali arms cache. It is believed that warlord General Mohamed Farrah Aidid is responsible. On June 12, U.N. and U.S. forces attack various Aidid related targets in Mogadishu. In July, a U.S. missile attack on a building where clan leaders are meeting kills Somalis. Investigating the incident, four western journalists are beaten to death by a mob of angry Somalis.

In August, ten American troops are killed or wounded by remotely detonated land mines.  440 elite troops from Delta Force and the U.S. Rangers (Task Force Ranger) arrive in Mogadishu. Their mission: capture Aidid. 

October 3-4 Task Force Ranger, searching for Aidid, launches an assault on the Olympic Hotel in Mogadishu. There ensues a 17-hour battle in which 18 US troops are killed and another 84 are wounded. On October 7, Bill Clinton announces that all U.S. troops will be out of Somaila by March 31. The hunt for Aidid is abandoned. U.S. combat troops are temporarily increased, in order to ensure the safe retreat of forces already in country.

And that’s the crux of the argument: 18 dead and 84 wounded was too much American blood shed. Americans just don’t have the stomach for much of a fight. Americans bled, Clinton cut and ran, Osama bin Laden was emboldened by this, confident he could strike at America with impunity. That’s the theory. Is there any evidence that U.S. actions in Somalia actually influenced bin Laden?

Let’s see what bin Laden had to say about it. In October, 2001, bin Laden was interviewed by Al-Jazeera television. The transcript of that interview says, in part:

We experienced the Americans through our brothers who went into combat against them in Somalia, for example. We found they had no power worthy of mention. There was a huge aura over America — the United States — that terrified people even before they entered combat. Our brothers who were here in Afghanistan tested them, and together with some of the mujahedeen in Somalia, God granted them victory. America exited dragging its tails in failure, defeat, and ruin, caring for nothing.

America left faster than anyone expected. It forgot all that tremendous media fanfare about the new world order, that it is the master of that order, and that it does whatever it wants. It forgot all of these propositions, gathered up its army, and withdrew in defeat, thanks be to God. We experienced combat against the Russians for 10 years, from 1979 to 1989, thanks be to God. Then we continued against the communists in Afghanistan. Today, we’re at the end of our second week. There is no comparison between the two battles, between this group and that. We pray to God to give us his support and to make America ever more reluctant. God is capable of that.

So there it is in Osama’s own words. America had this “aura” that terrified people. Somalia proved that America was weak and would run from a real fight, our tails between our legs. No longer viewed as invincible, America was now known to be vulnerable.

While Clinton’s Somali decisions may certainly be a factor, in my opinion, Clinton’s real failing was in cutting back on “HUMINT” — the human intelligence operations that provide information and insights that simply cannot be gleaned from satellite photos (imagery intelligence — IMINT ) and communication intercepts (signals intelligence — SIGINT ). Sometimes, it takes someone actually working inside an organization to find out what’s going on.

Why did Clinton cut back on HUMINT? Well, it was a stupid decision, really. Following revelations that CIA operatives committed human rights violations in Guatemala, the CIA was directed to reform its HUMINT recruitment and to no longer utilize sources who were involved in criminal activity or human rights abuses. This is like telling the cops that they cannot employ CIs (confidential informants — “snitches”) who are drug dealers or mobsters because, well, they’re disreputable and we shouldn’t be associating with them. 

I suspect that, in law enforcement and national intelligence alike, the best information comes from those closest to the monitored activity. Thus the restriction against employing “disreputable” sources wasn’t just stupid, it was monumentally stupid. This is the definition of “Throwing out the baby with the bath water.” 

The rules also barred agents from posing as priests or journalists, and required CIA recruiters to divulge the identities of their agents to CIA headquarters, thus creating a likelihood of exposure in the event of a security breach at headquarters.

Under the Clinton administration rules, both the quality and quantity of HUMINT suffered. Many believe, as I do, that the 9-11 attacks — years in the planning — could not have remained unknown to our intelligence agencies, had we decent HUMINT in place.

Do I blame Clinton for 9-11? As much as anyone else, yes. Certainly his decisions and policies made 9-11 more possible and more probable. There’s no getting around it.

I subscribe to a number of technical mailing lists and to one of them, a fellow named Mark posted his “Ode to The Strong” on September 10, 2002 — commemorating the first anniversary of the events of 9-11-2001. It was quite a read. I include it, in its entirety, (spelling and punctuation are original) below. This is followed by my own reply, as I could not permit his Ode to pass unremarked.

In my response, I intersperse my point-by-point remarks within his original text. On with the show. Here’s Marks Ode to The Strong:

It was just a year ago that many stood in shock, fear, and anger, as a few men of varying origins took part in a coordinated attack, one that killed people, but who’s target was the living.

America is hated by much of the world, partly because we are so prosperous, partly because we don’t conform to thier standards, and partly because we are free. All tyrants fear the free. The free, in a world of absolute control, are the “loose cannons” of time. They fail to conform to the plans, to obediently follow the strictures laid out for them. They ruin the plans of those who seek thier own ends at the expense of others. They foil the efforts of those who think they can rule the world.

Today, we are still grappling the magnitude and pervasiveness of the hatred directed our way. We react with disbelief at the apparent desire to kill us. Our minds do not relate to the burning desire to kill that is so strong that it overcomes our own will to live.

But in spite of all this, they failed. They failed to demonstrate thier way is better. They failed to convince the world that good was done by killing us. But what they REALLY failed to do, was to break us. Oh, the naysayers are out there… The exploiters have attempted to take our liberty – or at least try to say that liberty must be sacraficed. They try to say our thinking is wrong – that our freedom, our non-conformity, our refusal to be the rest of the world – is the cause of all the ills that plague our world. But they are wrong. They are wrong because they are weak.

But we are not weak. We aren’t even bothered by it all. I know we are strong, because I see we are strong. In the middle of it all, everyday men rushed into the buildings to save others. Ordinary people lined up to give blood. Countless anonymous people who gained nothing by it opened thier hearts and wallets. And we are still strong. In fact, I think we are even stronger. It’s no longer out of fashion to fly the flag. It’s no longer ridiculed to stand and face the flag with hand over heart and tears in your eyes from the swelling in your heart.

We may have seemed to forget, but then we remembered anew how each of us must determine to live as individuals. Not just exist, but LIVE. To exercise our freedom, our rights, and our obligations to care for each other on a personal level and reach out our own hand toward our neighbor.

And on this day of remembering, let us no longer mourn the dead or grieve for the hurt. Let us resolve that we never forget what it was that made it possible for those who attacked us to fail so miserably. It is a love of liberty. It is a unflinching belief in ourselves. It is our individualism, our freedom, our ability to face risk and loss and not resort to collective “safety” that made the attack on our institutions so utterly ineffective at breaking us. For so long as we stand as individuals, staring our fates down one to one, nothing can destroy America, unless they can destroy every one of us.

Let us renew our commitment to liberty, to individuality, to the belief that we are an entire nation of individuals who are “under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all.” Because if “liberty, and justice for all” are not worth living for, then nothing else will ever really matter.

All worked up? Feeling patriotic? Well, then, here it is again, edited, with my remarks interspersed.

It was just a year ago that many stood in shock, fear, and anger, as a few men of varying origins took part in a coordinated attack, one that killed people, but who’s target was the living.

America is hated by much of the world, partly because we are so prosperous, partly because we don’t conform to thier standards, and partly because we are free.

Not to mention partly because we stick our noses into their affairs.

But in spite of all this, they failed. They failed to demonstrate thier way is better. They failed to convince the world that good was done by killing us.

That was not their objective. They wanted to show that we are vulnerable and can be killed. At that, they did not fail.

It’s no longer out of fashion to fly the flag. It’s no longer ridiculed to stand and face the flag with hand over heart and tears in your eyes from the swelling in your heart.

And look what it took to make flying the flag fashionable. As someone who has flown Old Glory outside my home for more than 20 years, every day, I guarantee you that many people thought of me as some sort of nut-case. Now I’m just the guy with the oldest flag.

Let us resolve that we never forget what it was that made it possible for those who attacked us to fail so miserably.

Rather, let us remember what allowed them to succeed so well with their murderous plan. We’ve been cowed into submission by our own government and taught that self-defense is wrong and bad. We’re conditioned to bleat that “Violence is bad” while making no distinction between offensive and defensive violence. Do-gooder busy-bodies, politicians and legislators see the violence you might do in defending yourself as being just as bad as the violence of a assailant preying on you.

We have been disarmed and turned into so many sitting ducks by law. Meanwhile, we go on about how wonderful it is to be “free” while having no idea what true freedom is.

It is a love of liberty. It is a unflinching belief in ourselves. It is our individualism, our freedom, our ability to face risk and loss and not resort to collective “safety” that made the attack on our institutions so utterly ineffective at breaking us. For so long as we stand as individuals, staring our fates down one to one, nothing can destroy America, unless they can destroy every one of us.

What a load of claptrap. We are destroying ourselves from within. We are our own worst enemy.

Let us renew our commitment to liberty, to individuality….

If only .. If only… Even as we become less free, we celebrate our diminishing freedom.

I’ll tell you what, since Mark got away with editorializing, I’m going to share with this list a note I sent out to my family and friends on 9-11-2002. Here goes… (Rather than include it here, I’ll just link to the posted version.)

Of course, Mark replied. Here we go again:

Thanks for the encouragement.

My purpose was to elucidate, not to encourage; I try to avoid encouraging harmful behavior.

Gee. We think roughly the same things. I say what I say on a positive note, selling the concept, not trying to be overly maudlin or critical, and you rip me for it.

No, you’re selling something different. You’re trying to make people feel good about an increasingly bad situation. I mean, I’m all for a Stiff Upper Lip and all that, but I’m not going to watch thousands of our people get killed, the economy brought to its knees, the airline industry becomes a wreck, and then let someone tell us that the whole thing has made us strong or proven how strong we are.

We are not strong. A group of men armed with nothing more than utility knives did this to us. If we were strong, they could not have done this.

I decided not to broach the politics of gun control

Sure, we wouldn’t want them catching on to their own culpability in the matter. That might make them feel bad. No one wants to face the fact that we brought this on ourselves. Preferable to blame someone else.

and the countless other things, but instead, remind people that it is principles first that count.

Principles like our freedoms, eh?

But you know, those “issues” are a losing battle, if we don’t believe in the principles they spring from. I’m sorry if you don’t like it, but right now, the principles need selling, not the issues. We can’t win on the specifics, if people don’t believe in the ideal in the first place.

The ideal being what? That if we just have enough cheerleaders telling us that things are getting better, then things really are getting better? Rah, Rah.

I’m only 39, but holding my hand over my heart and pledging allegiance to the flag has never been easy. Even in grade school, I felt it was an awesome burden to uphold the faith in my country. Even when it wasn’t in fashion, I have always been ardently patriotic, and a loud, insistent, and consistent advocate of the founding principles of our country – liberty, equality, individualism.

Then why aren’t you defending these things? It does no good to Rah, Rah for “freedom” when people don’t know what freedom is. They have been led to believe that defending freedom is banning fanny packs and diaper bags from sporting events. That disarming them to provide faux safety is “freedom.”

… I stood at the back, in the sound booth (I am one of the sound system team), and listened, with tears running down my face, partly from the pride in what I know is such a wonderful ideal, and partly from the hurt that so few understand or even care. I guess that makes me worthy of derision?

Not at all. I weep too, but I didn’t need the events of 9-11-2001 to make me weep.

>
> But we know that we are brave because the talking heads tell us so. We are strong because we have red, white, and blue ribbons on our chests, protecting us. We are fearless, and to prove it, we fly American flags. That’ll show ’em what we’re made of.
>

Nonsense. I know what I’m made of. I don’t have to prove anything to anyone. But we need to convince everyone else, too. Telling them they’re weak and stupid sure isn’t going to accomplish anything.

The truth sometimes hurts. You can go on deluding yourself, I have no control over that. But when someone uses a public forum to delude others, I feel compelled to step in.

> —
> “You cannot be defenseless against evil. To discard the means for people to defend themselves leads to the kind of holocaust we have seen over and over again.” — Alan Keyes
>

Alan Keyes is rather ambivalent on the subject, compared to me. But then, you wouldn’t know that. May I suggest you refrain from judging people you don’t know, or presupposing thier beliefs.

I judge not you, Mark, but your actions.

Most people just Don’t Get It. They think that loving their country is all that’s required. And they think that good citizens Go Along to Get Along, that criticizing government is bad, that we must all stick together first and foremost.

Bill Clinton, asked, during his tenure as president, “How can people love their country but hate their government?” Either he Doesn’t Get It or he’s being intentionally misleading. (I’ll let you decide.)

The United States is not the federal government. The United States is the people of fifty states, it’s the fifty states themselves, not the central government.

Anyway, go on making people “feel” safe and strong and free if you want to. I’m going to be pointing out that we are increasingly less safe, less strong and less free.

Politicians understand that perception is everything. It simply doesn’t matter what the truth of the matter is as long as people perceive that things are OK. Right up to and through September 10, 2001, I’m sure that the great, vast majority of air travellers “felt” safe. They were not, as is now obvious, in fact safe. But that did not matter — at least until Sept. 11. Post 9-11-2001, there was a big effort to make people feel safe again. By confiscating nail clippers, we have been made to “feel” safe again, though we are not any safer now than before 9-11.

All that matters to government is that We the People buy what they’re selling. And you’re helping to sell it. Rah, Rah.

I was all nine-elevened out even before the day began. On Tuesday night, the 10th, my wife gave me the TV guide with Post-It notes and hi-lighter drawing my attention to all the programs she wanted recorded on this, the first anniversary of the 9-11 attacks.

Unfortunately, we have several VCRs and a TiVo so it was actually possible to record each and every 9-11 marathon, each remembrance and memorial, the wall-to-wall retrospectives — each item she had marked in the TV Guide. It took a bit of head scratching to get it all mapped out, then about 30 minutes of labeling tapes and programming devices. I told my Mac to present several reminders to change tapes at appropriate times and then I was prepared.

But I’d already had enough of 9-11. It’s depressing. It’s sickening, really. The unnecessary loss of life was bad enough; the reaction to it, still on-going, was far worse. As I predicted within days of the attack, we have indeed passed a boatload of legislation that will only make things worse. I’d stated that we would learn all the wrong “lessons” from 9-11 and we did. We now have a new cabinet-level department charged with protecting us — by infringing our rights even further.

I avoided turning on the TV all day today. I wanted no part of all the maudlin hand-wringing, the orgy of tear-jerking stories revisited. It was bad enough the first time around. I don’t endure such things well. I always end up an emotional wreck, filled with a great sadness and an even greater anger. The hypocrisy and lies are too much for me.

When my wife arrived home and turned on the TV, there was exactly what I couldn’t stomach —Dan Rather going on about how we are a nation that won’t give in to fear. Excuse me?!? Then why are we afraid of nail clippers? If we weren’t shaking in our collective boots, would we be in a froth about those plastic knives that break when you try to spread a pat of butter on an airline dinner roll? What, if not fear, motivates us to require that airline passengers pass through metal detectors and show ID to prove who they are before we let them on a commercial aircraft? We haven’t given in to fear?!?

We’re a big bunch of scare-dee-cats. Chickens. We’re a nation of yellowbelly cowards, and we’re afraid even to admit it. We’re afraid of nail clippers and pointy objects, we’re really afraid of box cutters and we’re really, really afraid of guns. We’re so afraid of guns that when a kid takes the itty-bitty, plastic pistol (about one inch end-to-end) that came with his GI Joe to school, we suspend him. THATS how afraid we are of “guns”, even guns that no one in their right mind would take to be a threat. We’re so afraid of guns that we don’t even want our kids to *know* about guns — that’s how afraid we are. Kids have been kicked out of school for drawing a picture of a gun.

Tell me we haven’t given in to fear.

9-11-2001 did not have to happen. But it did happen because we’re afraid. We’re afraid even to defend ourselves when attacked. We’re taught not to resist an attacker — that’ll only make him angrier. And we could get hurt. Wouldn’t want to risk THAT, would we. So the milquetoast, pantywaist, lily-livered, most frightened amongst us see to it that no one is permitted to defend themselves. The tools of self-defense (so very lacking on 9-11) are forbidden, lest someone turn them to aggressive ends.

So atrocities like 9-11 become possible. There is no one equipped to resist, much less prepared mentally. We are disarmed and meek, having been conditioned to quietly accept our fates. Protecting people, we are told, is best left to professionals. As we empty our pockets of change and other metal objects to be herded through the security checkpoint, we think, falsely, that we are protected.

But we know that we are brave because the talking heads tell us so. We are strong because we have red, white, and blue ribbons on our chests, protecting us. We are fearless, and to prove it, we fly American flags. That’ll show ’em what we’re made of.

—
“You cannot be defenseless against evil. To discard the means for people to defend themselves leads to the kind of holocaust we have seen over and over again.” — Alan Keyes